Free, in-depth guides on prediction markets — how they work, how to read prices, how the platforms compare, and how to think like a calibrated forecaster.
The fundamentals of prediction markets: how they work, why they often beat experts, the major platforms, and how to start.
Side-by-side comparison of the two leading prediction market venues — regulation, fees, liquidity, US availability, and which to use.
Implied probability, expected value, the bid-ask spread, position sizing, and resolution risk — with worked examples.
Which platform to pick — Manifold, Kalshi, or Polymarket — based on where you live and whether you want to risk real money.
A six-step beginner's guide: practice calibration, choose a platform, fund an account, and place your first trade the right way.
Start the free first lesson